Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2 at Wrigley Field on August 17, 2024, in a game that was tightly contested through four innings before Chicago pulled away in the fifth. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 56 percent home win probability for the Cubs and closed at 100 percent, a reflection of how thoroughly Chicago controlled the game's decisive moments. The Cubs finished with five hits to Toronto's seven, but Toronto's two errors proved costly against a Cubs lineup that converted its opportunities efficiently.
The game's most consequential play came in the bottom of the fifth, when Michael Busch laced a triple off Chris Bassitt, adding 19.0 percent to Chicago's win probability and serving as the primary inflection point of the contest. That single at-bat did more to determine the outcome than nearly everything else combined. Toronto had multiple chances to claw back into the game but repeatedly came up short, most notably in the fourth inning, where Steward Berroa's flyout cost the Blue Jays 9.1 percent in win probability and Davis Schneider's strikeout cost another 8.5 percent, both against Nate Pearson. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s flyout in the seventh off Porter Hodge represented another squandered opportunity, draining 9.5 percent from Toronto's chances. Addison Barger provided a brief spark with a solo home run off Jorge López in the ninth, but the rally fell short.
On the performance side, Busch led all batters with a WPA of plus-16.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.3, underscoring how central he was to the Cubs' offensive effort. Alejandro Kirk contributed plus-8.4 percent WPA for Chicago as well, while Dansby Swanson added plus-5.0 percent. From the mound, Porter Hodge was the standout reliever, posting plus-17.6 percent WPA, with Nate Pearson contributing plus-11.2 percent in a strong outing despite wearing the loss in the box score narrative. The DiamondIQ model favors the Cubs in this result as the cleaner, more efficient execution of scoring opportunities proved to be the deciding factor.