Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals handed the Cincinnati Reds a 7-1 defeat at Great American Ball Park on August 16, 2024, a game that began as a coin flip — the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Cincinnati a 48 percent chance of winning before first pitch — but ended with the Reds holding a zero percent probability as Kansas City's offense closed the door with a four-run ninth inning. The Royals finished with 13 hits to Cincinnati's four, committing one error to match the Reds' own, and the game's decisive moments were concentrated in the middle innings before Kansas City put it firmly out of reach late.
The single most consequential offensive play of the night, by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, came from the Cincinnati side. Tyler Stephenson's sixth-inning double off Michael Lorenzen swung win probability 11.7 percent in the Reds' favor, briefly keeping Cincinnati relevant in a game it otherwise struggled to threaten. However, Bobby Witt Jr. answered across the evening with the two biggest Kansas City swings on the board. His fourth-inning home run off Nick Martinez shifted win probability 11.6 percent toward the Royals, and his double in the sixth added another 7.1 percent, sandwiching Adam Frazier's single in that same inning, which contributed a 9.0 percent swing. Nick Martinez absorbed the damage in both the fourth and sixth, while Michael Massey's pop out in the fifth represented the game's most damaging Kansas City at-bat, costing the Royals 6.3 percent in win probability.
Witt Jr. finished as the clear top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, accumulating plus-19.8 percent in WPA and plus-1.7 in RE24, making him the primary offensive engine of the victory. Stephenson led Cincinnati's contributors at plus-7.6 percent WPA despite the loss, and Frazier added plus-5.8 percent for Kansas City. On the mound, James McArthur led all pitchers with plus-14.3 percent WPA, followed closely by Lorenzen at plus-13.6 percent and Kris Bubic at plus-8.1 percent, a trio that kept the game within the model's framework until Witt Jr. and the Royals offense made the outcome unavoidable.