Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox overcame a spirited Baltimore Orioles comeback to win 12-10 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 16, 2024, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving Baltimore a 60 percent chance of winning. The game was a back-and-forth affair that saw both offenses generate plenty of traffic, with Boston finishing with 14 hits and Baltimore collecting 17, though neither team committed an error. By the final out, the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Baltimore win had fallen to zero percent.

The decisive blow came in the fourth inning when Masataka Yoshida launched a home run off Corbin Burnes, a swing that shifted win probability 26.2 percent in Boston's favor and stood as the single most impactful play of the game. Yoshida finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-35.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.8. Rafael Devers had already set the tone in the third with a home run also off Burnes that moved the needle 14.9 percent toward Boston. Baltimore responded in that same third inning when Jackson Holliday ripped a triple off Cooper Criswell for a 13.6 percent swing, keeping the Orioles in contention. The seventh inning proved critical once more, as David Hamilton hit a home run off Craig Kimbrel worth 15.5 percent in win probability, and Ramón Urías posted the second-best WPA figure on the night at plus-32.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-4.3 despite ultimately falling on the losing side. Kenley Jansen closed it out in the ninth, getting Ryan Mountcastle to ground out in a moment worth 14.4 percent to Boston's probability, and Lucas Sims led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-13.3 percent in the Red Sox bullpen's effort to protect the lead.