San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| COL | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Colorado Rockies defeated the San Diego Padres 7-3 at Coors Field on August 16, 2024, a result that was largely settled in the opening frames. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Colorado only a 35% chance of winning, but that figure climbed steadily and finished at 100% as the Rockies built an early cushion they never relinquished. Colorado plated four runs in the first inning and added two more in the second, effectively turning the game into a damage-limitation exercise for San Diego before the contest was two innings old.
The win-probability analysis reveals that Matt Waldron was at the center of the game's most consequential moments, though not always in the way his team needed. Brenton Doyle's strikeout in the bottom of the second inning added 12.4% to Colorado's win probability, while Jake Cave's flyout in the bottom of the first contributed 12.3%, both outs coming against Waldron and reflecting how dangerous those situations had become for San Diego. Charlie Blackmon's home run off Waldron in the second added another 9.5% to the Rockies' chances and stood as one of the few plays that moved probability through positive production rather than through defusing a threat. On the San Diego side, Ha-Seong Kim's ground into a double play in the top of the sixth cost the Padres 11.5 percentage points at a moment when the DiamondIQ model still had slim possibilities in play, and Luis Arraez's lineout in the second cost an additional 10.3%.
Cal Quantrill anchored the pitching performance, leading all players on either side with a WPA of plus 15.8%, and Tyler Kinley and Lucas Gilbreath added 4.5% and 3.6% respectively to close things out. Among position players, Doyle finished at plus 12.9% WPA while Blackmon contributed plus 9.8% with a RE24 of plus 2.0, making him the only Colorado batter to post a meaningfully positive run-expectancy figure. Jake Cave rounded out the top three at plus 11.5% WPA. San Diego finished with ten hits but was unable to convert them into sustained pressure against the Rockies' pitching staff.