Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies held off a late Washington Nationals rally to win 3-2 at Citizens Bank Park on August 16, 2024, moving the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 68 percent all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Philadelphia built its advantage in the third inning, scoring twice off Patrick Corbin, though Alec Bohm grounded into a double play in that same frame, a sequence that cost the Phillies 10.2 percentage points of win probability and left runs on the table. Aaron Nola worked through the Washington lineup effectively enough to earn top pitching honors by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus-17.2 percent WPA contribution, with Jeff Hoffman and Jacob Barnes adding 10.6 and 6.9 percent respectively as Philadelphia managed the middle innings with a two-run cushion.

The Nationals made things genuinely tense in the ninth, and José Tena was the central figure in that drama. His single off Carlos Estévez represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game, adding 30.6 percentage points to Washington's chances and keying what became a two-run rally that closed the deficit to one. Tena finished as the game's top positional performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a combined plus-35.5 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. James Wood also contributed meaningfully for Washington, generating plus-16.3 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.6 RE24 despite the loss.

Philadelphia ultimately closed it out in the bottom of the ninth, with Brandon Marsh delivering a decisive single off Kyle Finnegan worth plus-17.5 percent win probability, followed by Cal Stevenson's single adding another 12.0 percent. Those two hits ended Washington's comeback bid and handed the Phillies the narrow victory, with the Nationals stranding considerable opportunity despite collecting 11 hits on the afternoon against a Philadelphia staff that allowed traffic but prevented the tying or go-ahead run from crossing.