Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers edged the St. Louis Cardinals 7-6 at Busch Stadium on August 16, 2024, in a game that turned decisively in the sixth inning and held through a tense finish. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 45 percent home win probability for St. Louis, but a five-run Dodgers sixth inning swung the balance sharply, and the model's estimate fell to zero percent by the final out.
The pivotal sequence came in the top of the sixth, where Kevin Kiermaier delivered the game's single most consequential play, a home run off Andrew Kittredge that shifted win probability by 38.9 points in Los Angeles's favor. Mookie Betts added his own home run in the same frame, this one off Miles Mikolas, contributing another 12.1-point swing. Those back-to-back blows effectively broke open what had been a competitive contest, as St. Louis had answered an early Dodgers two-run second with a Paul Goldschmidt home run off Justin Wrobleski in the bottom half, a swing worth 12.1 points in the Cardinals' direction.
The Cardinals made a late push and kept the game within reach into the ninth, but Willson Contreras's strikeout to end the game off Michael Kopech registered a 31.6-point win-probability swing in Los Angeles's favor, sealing the outcome. Kiermaier finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-36.9 with a RE24 of plus-3.3, while Joe Kelly led all pitchers at plus-23.3 WPA with a scoreless eighth inning that included the Pedro Pagés strikeout, a minus-16.5 swing against St. Louis. Evan Phillips and Ryan Fernandez also contributed positive WPA outings out of the Dodgers bullpen as Los Angeles held on for the one-run road victory.