Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays edged the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-4 on August 16, 2024, at Tropicana Field in a game that swung dramatically in the late innings. Arizona jumped out to a 2-0 lead after the first inning and held that advantage deep into the contest, but Tampa Bay answered with a solo home run from Dylan Carlson in the fifth and then erupted for three runs in the eighth to seize control, ultimately holding off a ninth-inning Arizona surge to close out the win.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, where Josh Lowe delivered a single off Ryan Thompson that registered a win-probability swing of plus 42.0 percent by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, the second-largest single play of the game. That hit was part of a three-run frame that flipped the game in Tampa Bay's favor. Dylan Carlson contributed as well, adding a single in the same inning worth plus 11.6 percent, compounding his earlier home run off Ryne Nelson in the fifth, which had shifted win probability by plus 12.4 percent. Arizona made things interesting in the ninth when Corbin Carroll launched a home run off Pete Fairbanks that swung win probability by plus 36.8 percent, pulling the D-backs within one, but Brandon Lowe answered immediately in the bottom half with a walk-off single off Justin Martinez, a plus 42.9 percent swing that closed the door entirely.
Josh Lowe finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 39.0 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.6, while Carroll led all players in RE24 at plus 1.7 despite being on the losing side, finishing with a plus 30.8 percent WPA. Brandon Lowe's walk-off contribution produced a plus 29.5 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Ryne Nelson led D-backs starters with a plus 24.0 percent WPA, while A.J. Puk and Kevin Kelly anchored the Tampa Bay bullpen with plus 19.0 and plus 16.9 percent marks respectively. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game with Tampa Bay as a slight underdog at 47 percent, closing at 100 percent after Lowe's final swing ended it.