Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs edged the Toronto Blue Jays 6-5 in ten innings at Wrigley Field on August 16, 2024, in a game that featured dramatic late swings in win probability before Chicago ultimately secured the walk-off result. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 56 percent pre-game home win probability for the Cubs and closed at 100 percent following the decisive play.

The most pivotal sequence of the game unfolded across the final two innings. In the top of the ninth, George Springer delivered a triple off Héctor Neris that shifted win probability by plus 30.8 percent in Toronto's favor, representing the single largest swing of the night and giving the Blue Jays life in what had looked like a fading effort. Toronto pushed through to force extra innings, but the Cubs answered in the bottom of the tenth when Seiya Suzuki singled off Chad Green to walk off the game, swinging win probability plus 28.4 percent toward Chicago and ending the contest. Earlier, Ian Happ's pop out in the bottom of the ninth off Génesis Cabrera contributed a plus 14.0 percent swing as Chicago worked through a tense frame, and Pete Crow-Armstrong's home run off Yariel Rodríguez in the fifth had given the Cubs their initial cushion with a plus 12.4 percent contribution.

Among individual performers, Suzuki finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 24.0 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.3, while Springer and Happ were nearly as impactful at plus 23.8 and plus 23.7 percent respectively, with Happ posting the strongest run-environment contribution of the three at plus 1.7 RE24. On the pitching side, Jorge López led Chicago's staff with plus 7.2 percent WPA, followed by Drew Smyly at plus 6.4 percent and Porter Hodge at plus 4.5 percent. The final line showed Toronto collecting ten hits to Chicago's seven, though the Cubs overcame two errors to outlast the Blue Jays across ten innings.