Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Washington Nationals 4-1 on August 14, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving Baltimore a 67% chance of winning at home. The Orioles struck first with two runs in the bottom of the first inning, then added two more in the seventh to put the game away, while Washington managed just a single run in the top of the second and could not threaten meaningfully thereafter.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the seventh, when Jackson Holliday's single off Robert Garcia delivered a swing of plus 10.1% in win probability, the largest single-play shift of the game and effectively the knockout blow. Washington's best opportunities dissolved in a pair of groundouts: Keibert Ruiz's groundout off Dean Kremer in the top of the sixth cost the Nationals 7.8% in win probability, and Ildemaro Vargas's groundout off Kremer two innings earlier subtracted another 7.0%. Andrés Chaparro drew a walk off Kremer in the sixth for a plus 5.5% swing, though it came to nothing, and Austin Slater's grounded into double play off DJ Herz in the fifth erased another 5.2% from Washington's dwindling chances.

On the pitching side, DJ Herz led all players with a plus 20.1% WPA, while Dean Kremer contributed plus 19.3% and Yennier Cano added plus 8.5%, a trio that collectively suffocated a Nationals lineup that managed only five hits with no errors committed by either side. Among Baltimore's batters, Alex Call posted the strongest RE24 at plus 1.2, with Coby Mayo and Andrés Chaparro each contributing positively in win probability as well. The model's estimate finished at 100% for Baltimore, a reflection of how thoroughly the Orioles controlled this contest from the opening frame forward.