MLB Recap · August 14, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

LAD4
Final
MIL5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD300000100492
MIL03010010-551

The Story

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-4 on August 14, 2024, at American Family Field in a game that swung dramatically on a handful of pivotal plate appearances. The Dodgers struck first with three runs in the top of the first inning, but Milwaukee answered with three of its own in the bottom of the first and added another in the fourth, building a lead that its bullpen would ultimately protect. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Milwaukee a 52% win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%.

The decisive stretch arrived in the seventh inning, where both teams made their most consequential contributions. Miguel Rojas delivered a single off Jared Koenig that shifted win probability 11.3 points in the Dodgers' favor, briefly threatening to upend Milwaukee's lead, but Koenig recovered to retire Austin Barnes on a strikeout that swung probability 11.3 points back toward the Brewers, and then fanned Teoscar Hernández for a loss of 9.3 points to LAD. Jackson Chourio then answered in the bottom half with a single off Evan Phillips worth 10.5 percentage points, effectively extinguishing the Dodger threat. A costly Dodger error and two Milwaukee errors factored into the final error totals, with LAD committing two and MIL one.

Chourio finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 15.1% with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Freddie Freeman contributed plus 12.4% WPA and Rojas added plus 11.3%. On the mound, Devin Williams led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 15.2%, followed by Joel Payamps at plus 12.6% and Nick Mears at plus 7.3%, a trio that held the Dodgers scoreless from the second inning through the ninth and preserved the one-run Milwaukee victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalMIL win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 51.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Miguel Rojas Single
Top 7th · off Jared Koenig
+11.3%
Austin Barnes Strikeout
Top 6th · off Nick Mears
-11.3%
Jackson Chourio Single
Bot 7th · off Evan Phillips
+10.5%
Teoscar Hernández Strikeout
Top 7th · off Jared Koenig
-9.3%
Willy Adames Strikeout
Bot 1st · off Walker Buehler
-8.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Jackson Chourio+15.1%+1.7 RE24
Freddie Freeman+12.4%+1.1 RE24
Miguel Rojas+11.3%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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