Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks walked off the Colorado Rockies 4-3 on August 13, 2024, at Chase Field, converting a two-run ninth inning into a victory that the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 72 percent home-win probability before the first pitch. Colorado held a 3-2 lead through eight innings, but Victor Vodnik was unable to close it out, surrendering the decisive runs in the bottom of the ninth that pushed Arizona's win probability to 100 percent by the final out.

The swing in fortune came almost entirely on two swings in that ninth inning. Corbin Carroll's triple off Vodnik added 32.2 percentage points to Arizona's win probability, but it was Jake McCarthy's single in the same frame that proved the most consequential single play of the game, adding 74.2 percentage points and delivering the winning run. McCarthy finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 62.4 percent, though his evening was not without its rough edges — a grounded-into-double-play in the seventh inning off Noah Davis had cost Arizona 17.0 percentage points at a critical moment. Kevin Newman's strikeout to end the ninth trimmed 25.9 percentage points in what proved to be the final out, though by then the margin had already been secured. Carroll posted plus 22.0 percent WPA to complement his clutch triple, while Geraldo Perdomo contributed a quieter plus 9.3 percent.

On the pitching side, Austin Gomber led Arizona's staff with plus 25.2 percent WPA, with Tyler Kinley adding 23.3 percent in relief despite surrendering a lineout from Joc Pederson that briefly cost the D-backs 12.9 percentage points in the eighth. Noah Davis chipped in plus 9.7 percent. Colorado's pitching held the Diamondbacks to two runs through eight frames before Vodnik absorbed the collapse, surrendering both ninth-inning runs in what became a complete reversal of a game that the Rockies had controlled heading into the final three outs.