Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres shut out the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 on August 13, 2024, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 63 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Pittsburgh managed nine hits but committed two errors, while San Diego allowed just those three runs to cross the plate on seven hits of their own, none for the Pirates.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the fifth inning, when David Peralta connected on a home run off Luis Ortiz, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-10.6 percent in San Diego's favor. That blow was bookended by Pittsburgh's own self-inflicted damage: Bryan Reynolds grounded into a double play against Michael King in the top of the fifth, costing the Pirates 6.9 percent in win probability, and Joey Bart followed with another double play in the top of the sixth off the same pitcher, shedding another 10.5 percent. Those sequential groundouts effectively sealed Pittsburgh's fate, eliminating two separate threats before they could develop. Peralta finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-11.0 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Luis Arraez contributed plus-2.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0 in a supporting role.

Michael King was the dominant force on the mound, posting a staggering plus-25.0 percent WPA as he repeatedly suppressed Pittsburgh rallies, with Tanner Scott adding plus-8.1 percent and Jason Adam contributing plus-7.2 percent out of the bullpen. Pittsburgh's best moments came late and amounted to little, with Reynolds doubling off Scott in the eighth for a plus-6.7 percent swing and Isiah Kiner-Falefa reaching on a hit by pitch against Jason Adam in the seventh for plus-6.0 percent, but neither threat produced a run. The model leans toward San Diego's pitching staff as the primary driver of the outcome.