Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| CLE | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Chicago Cubs 2-1 on August 13, 2024, at Progressive Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 64% pre-game home win probability to a near-certain 100% by the final out. Cleveland scored both of its runs in the second and sixth innings, while Chicago's lone run came in the second, leaving the Guardians to protect a one-run lead through the final three frames.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the sixth when Jhonkensy Noel connected on a home run off Drew Smyly, a swing that shifted win probability by 15.2 percentage points and stood as the game's single most impactful offensive play. Noel finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-14.4%, pairing that figure with a RE24 of plus-1.0. José Ramírez contributed earlier with a double off Javier Assad in the third inning, adding 6.4 percentage points of win probability and keeping Cleveland's early pressure alive. On the mound, Assad was the most valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a WPA of plus-18.4%, while Emmanuel Clase closed out the ninth with plus-15.2% WPA, inducing a lineout from Cody Bellinger and a fielder's choice out from Dansby Swanson to seal the result. Matthew Boyd added plus-10.8% WPA in his own relief contribution. Daniel Schneemann's strikeout in the bottom of the eighth, worth plus-7.8% WPA, effectively extinguished any remaining Cubs hope of a comeback.