MLB Recap · August 12, 2024

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

TEX4
Final
BOS5

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
TEX0000102001460
BOS0001200002590

The Story

The Boston Red Sox walked off the Texas Rangers 5-4 in ten innings on August 12, 2024, at Fenway Park, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model tracked from a 60 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent at the final out. The game was scoreless through three innings before Boston plated one in the fourth and two more in the fifth, only to see Texas erase that deficit with a two-run seventh inning and then force extra innings. The Rangers briefly took the lead in the tenth on an Adolis García groundout that scored a run, a play that carried a 23.1 percent win-probability swing against Boston and set the stage for what followed.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the bottom of the tenth and stands as the most consequential stretch of the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Nick Sogard opened the rally with a single off Gerson Garabito that shifted win probability 29.5 percent in Boston's favor, and Enmanuel Valdez then delivered the biggest single play of the night, a double off Garabito that added 44.1 percent to Boston's win probability and brought the Red Sox level. Rob Refsnyder finished it with a walk-off single off Walter Pennington worth 33.4 percent in win probability, ending the contest. Corey Seager had provided the biggest offensive contribution for Texas, posting a combined WPA of plus-41.8 percent driven by his seventh-inning home run off Bailey Horn that had briefly swung momentum toward the Rangers.

On the pitching side, Kenley Jansen led Boston's staff with a WPA of plus-13.5 percent, followed by Brayan Bello at plus-11.3 percent and Kirby Yates at plus-10.6 percent, a trio that largely kept Texas at bay across the middle and late innings. Valdez finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-44.1 percent with an RE24 of plus-1.0, while Seager's RE24 of plus-2.5 reflected the broader run-environment value he generated for Texas even in a losing effort. Boston finished with nine hits to Texas's six, with neither team committing an error across the ten innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalBOS win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 60.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Enmanuel Valdez Double
Bot 10th · off Gerson Garabito
+44.1%
Rob Refsnyder Single
Bot 10th · off Walter Pennington
+33.4%
Nick Sogard Single
Bot 10th · off Gerson Garabito
+29.5%
Corey Seager Home Run
Top 7th · off Bailey Horn
+25.1%
Adolis García Groundout
Top 10th · off Josh Winckowski
+23.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Enmanuel Valdez+44.1%+1.0 RE24
Corey Seager+41.8%+2.5 RE24
Nick Sogard+25.8%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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