Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians held off the Chicago Cubs 9-8 on August 12, 2024, at Progressive Field in a back-and-forth contest that the DiamondIQ model entered favoring the home side at 63% and closed at 100% following Cleveland's ability to protect a one-run advantage through the final frames. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the fourth inning when Jhonkensy Noel launched a home run off Shota Imanaga, a swing that shifted win probability by 35.6 points and stood as the single most impactful play of the afternoon. Imanaga was hurt again in the fifth, when Steven Kwan added a home run that moved the needle another 17.5 points in Cleveland's favor, giving the Guardians a cushion that would prove critical as the Cubs mounted a late charge.

Chicago refused to fold quietly. Dansby Swanson's double off Scott Barlow in the top of the seventh carried a 20.9-point win-probability swing, and the Cubs ultimately pushed across four runs that inning to pull within striking distance. Patrick Wisdom kept the pressure on with a double off Nick Sandlin in the eighth worth 15.8 points. Ian Happ's third-inning home run off Ben Lively, worth 16.4 points, gave Chicago an early lead it could not sustain, but Happ still finished as one of the game's top performers with a cumulative WPA of plus 25.0 and a RE24 of plus 2.1.

On the Cleveland side, Noel led all position players with a WPA of plus 30.5 and a RE24 of plus 3.5, while Kwan posted plus 23.7 and plus 2.1 in those same categories. Out of the bullpen, Emmanuel Clase was the most valuable arm on either staff, contributing plus 15.2 in WPA as he closed out Chicago's threat, with Pedro Avila adding plus 12.1 in support. The final line of 9-8 with matching errors on each side reflected how closely contested this game remained, but Cleveland's middle-inning eruptions ultimately proved too large an obstacle for the Cubs to fully overcome.