Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds took a 4-3 road victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on August 11, 2024, at American Family Field, overcoming a DiamondIQ model pre-game estimate that had given Milwaukee a 63 percent chance of winning. The Brewers drew first blood in the second inning on a Joey Ortiz home run off Nick Lodolo, a swing that added 12.7 percent to Milwaukee's win probability. Cincinnati responded emphatically in the fourth, when a Santiago Espinal single off DL Hall shifted the probability 12.5 percent in the Reds' favor, and Tyler Stephenson extended the advantage with a fifth-inning home run off Hall that swung the model another 13.0 percent toward Cincinnati. The Reds carried a lead into the late innings, but Milwaukee remained within striking distance after a sixth-inning run cut the deficit to one.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the eighth and ninth innings. Emilio Pagán delivered the single most impactful pitching performance of the night, inducing a William Contreras ground-into-double-play that collapsed Milwaukee's win probability by 24.2 percent and left the Brewers with precious little margin in the final frame. Pagan finished as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-23.3 percent, with Sam Moll and Nick Mears each contributing additional probability cushion out of the Cincinnati bullpen. In the bottom of the ninth, Joey Ortiz lined out against Alexis Díaz in what the DiamondIQ model identified as the single biggest play of the game, a 31.6 percent swing that ended Milwaukee's last threat and sealed the Reds' win.
On the offensive ledger, Ortiz finished as the top batter by WPA despite Cincinnati's victory, his plus-34.6 percent and 0.9 RE24 reflecting how his early home run and late near-miss shaped the game's probability arc throughout. Stephenson posted plus-20.1 percent WPA and a team-best 1.7 RE24, while Espinal added plus-17.4 percent WPA and 1.2 RE24, each contributing to a Reds offensive effort that generated four runs on five hits while erasing what had been a comfortable pre-game projection for the home side.