MLB Recap · August 11, 2024

Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

LAA6
Final
WSH4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA000500100690
WSH000000022491

The Story

The Los Angeles Angels handed the Washington Nationals a 6-4 defeat at Nationals Park on August 11, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 55 percent pre-game home win probability down to zero by the final out. The game turned almost entirely on a single inning, as the Angels erupted for all five of their early runs in the fourth, sending the Nationals into a hole they never truly recovered from. Kevin Pillar delivered the decisive blow of the afternoon, a double off MacKenzie Gore that swung win probability 18.3 percent in the Angels' favor, and Pillar finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-20.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.7. Jo Adell added to the damage in that same fourth inning with a fielder's choice that pushed the Angels' advantage another 10.1 percent, completing the bulk of the scoring that would define the contest.

Washington made a late push in the eighth and ninth innings, plating two runs in each frame, but the rally ultimately came up short. The ninth inning produced the sharpest sequence of swings in the final box, beginning with Luis García Jr. drawing a walk off Ben Joyce that moved the needle 16.9 percent toward the Nationals and made García the game's second-highest WPA performer at plus-19.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.2. Nasim Nuñez followed with another walk off Joyce worth 7.7 percent, but Juan Yepez grounded into a double play that collapsed the rally by 13.8 percent and effectively closed the door on Washington's comeback attempt.

On the mound, Jack Kochanowicz was the clear standout, finishing as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-20.5 percent as he kept the Nationals largely in check through his time on the hill. Jacob Barnes and José A. Ferrer each contributed modest positive contributions in relief at plus-1.0 and plus-0.6 percent respectively. The Angels finished with nine hits and no errors, while Washington committed one error across their nine hits, a difference in execution that aligned neatly with the DiamondIQ model's final probability verdict.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalWSH win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 55.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Kevin Pillar Double
Top 4th · off MacKenzie Gore
+18.3%
Bot 9th · off Ben Joyce
+16.9%
Juan Yepez Grounded Into DP
Bot 9th · off Ben Joyce
-13.8%
Jo Adell Fielders Choice
Top 4th · off MacKenzie Gore
+10.1%
Nasim Nuñez Walk
Bot 9th · off Ben Joyce
+7.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Kevin Pillar+20.5%+1.7 RE24
Luis García Jr.+19.1%+2.2 RE24
Nasim Nuñez+7.9%+1.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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