San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 1 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres survived a wild back-and-forth contest at loanDepot park on August 10, 2024, defeating the Miami Marlins 9-8 in ten innings. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving Miami a 35 percent chance of winning at home, and the Marlins nearly validated that number with a six-run fifth inning that briefly seized control of the game. San Diego, however, refused to yield, rallying with two runs in the seventh and three more in the eighth to claw back and ultimately force extra innings before completing the comeback.
The decisive moments were clustered in the final two half-innings and centered almost entirely on Tanner Scott and the batters he faced in the bottom of the tenth. The DiamondIQ model's estimate shifted dramatically when Jackson Merrill delivered a go-ahead three-run home run off Anthony Bender in the top of the eighth, a swing worth plus-26.2 percent in win probability that turned a deficit into a lead. Miami answered in the bottom half when Jake Burger launched a home run off Adrian Morejon worth plus-24.5 percent, knotting the game and sending it to extras. In the tenth, the model's estimate lurched back and forth violently against Scott: Burger struck out for a swing of minus-18.8 percent, then Derek Hill singled to produce the game's single biggest probability movement at plus-45.5 percent, before Xavier Edwards grounded into a fielder's choice out that swung minus-29.0 percent back toward the Padres, ultimately ending Miami's last threat.
Burger led all players with a plus-50.3 percent WPA and a plus-1.2 RE24 despite being the final out, his homer having kept the Marlins alive long enough to make the late drama possible. Hill finished at plus-42.7 percent WPA, his tenth-inning single proving to be the pivotal hit of the entire contest. Merrill added plus-25.7 percent WPA with his go-ahead blast, and on the pitching side Calvin Faucher contributed the most value among San Diego's relievers at plus-13.5 percent WPA as the Padres closed out their one-run road victory.