New York Mets at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners shut out the New York Mets 4-0 on August 10, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Seattle win climbing from 54% before first pitch to a certainty by game's end. The Mariners did their damage early, scoring all three of their first-inning runs to seize control before the game was barely underway, then added an insurance run in the seventh. Logan Gilbert was the story on the mound, accumulating +32.7% in win probability added across his outing and consistently neutralizing any Mets threat. The most damaging sequence of the night from a probability standpoint came in the top of the second, when Mark Vientos grounded out against Gilbert in a situation that cost the Mets 7.2 percentage points of win probability, effectively burying their best opportunity to respond to the first-inning deficit.

New York generated just four hits and could not string anything together against Gilbert and the Seattle relief corps. The Mets' most meaningful offensive moment arrived in the top of the seventh when J.D. Martinez singled off Gilbert to shift win probability 4.8 points in New York's favor, but Pete Alonso immediately followed with a strikeout that swung the needle back 4.3 points in Seattle's direction, ending the threat. On the Seattle side, Justin Turner led all position players with +6.1% WPA and a RE24 of +1.6, while Dylan Moore contributed +5.6% WPA after his first-inning strikeout against Sean Manaea had briefly carried a +5.4% swing for the Mariners. Huascar Brazobán and Yimi García finished the game cleanly out of the bullpen, adding +4.6% and +1.9% in win probability respectively to preserve Gilbert's dominant effort.