Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians held off the Minnesota Twins 2-1 on August 10, 2024, at Target Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening the game at a 52 percent home win probability before closing at zero. Cleveland scored first in the top of the first inning, then both clubs traded runs in the sixth before the Guardians' bullpen locked things down the rest of the way. Bo Naylor provided the decisive blow in the top of the sixth, a home run off Simeon Woods Richardson that swung win probability 12.1 percent in Cleveland's favor, while Willi Castro's double in the bottom half off Gavin Williams briefly kept Minnesota within reach, adding 8.8 percent in the Twins' favor.

The game's pivotal sequence came in the final two innings, where the Cleveland bullpen methodically extinguished any Minnesota rally. Hunter Gaddis set the tone in the eighth, striking out Trevor Larnach in a moment that shifted win probability 12.9 percent away from the Twins. Emmanuel Clase then closed out the ninth, getting Matt Wallner on a strikeout that moved the needle 8.5 percent before inducing Max Kepler into a groundout that generated the single largest win-probability swing of the game at 31.6 percent, effectively ending Minnesota's chances.

On the performance ledger, Kepler finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-24.1 percent despite that groundout framing coming from the Twins' perspective, while Bo Naylor and Josh Naylor each contributed positively at plus-8.2 and plus-8.0 percent respectively. Gavin Williams led all pitchers at plus-23.6 percent WPA, with Gaddis close behind at plus-23.3 percent. Cleveland's final line of 2 runs on 4 hits with 1 error was just enough against a Minnesota side that also managed 4 hits but could not convert when it mattered most.