Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Chicago White Sox 3-1 on August 10, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model had anticipated — entering the game, the model placed Chicago's win probability at just 27%, a figure that reached zero by the final out. The Cubs generated their offense in measured bursts, breaking a scoreless tie in the fifth inning on an Isaac Paredes double off Jared Shuster that shifted win probability 13.7 points in Chicago's favor. The Cubs then put the game away with a two-run eighth, headlined by a Miguel Amaya single off Chad Kuhl that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 18.8 points. Successive strikeouts of Corey Julks and Korey Lee by Jorge López in the bottom of the eighth, each draining significant win probability from the White Sox at minus 12.3 and minus 11.0 points respectively, sealed Chicago's grip on the contest. Andrew Benintendi's strikeout against Héctor Neris to close the ninth added a final plus-12.0-point confirmation for the Cubs.

On the individual ledger, Miguel Vargas led all position players with a plus-14.2 WPA and a 0.9 RE24, while Amaya's clutch eighth-inning contribution settled at plus-9.0 WPA with a matching 0.9 RE24. On the mound, Chris Flexen was the dominant force for the Cubs, posting a plus-27.7 WPA to anchor a staff that also received meaningful contributions from Jorge López at plus-13.3 and Dominic Leone at plus-8.9. The White Sox finished with seven hits and committed no errors, but their offense was unable to convert against a Cubs pitching group that controlled the decisive moments throughout the evening.