Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| MIL | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 8 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 8-3 on August 9, 2024, at American Family Field, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 63 percent pre-game home win probability to a final figure of 100 percent. Milwaukee did the bulk of its damage early, plating three runs in each of the first two innings to build a lead the Reds never seriously threatened.
Carson Spiers bore the brunt of that early damage for Cincinnati. Willy Adames got Milwaukee started in the bottom of the first with a home run off Spiers, a swing that shifted win probability by 5.9 percent in the Brewers' favor. The second inning proved even more punishing, as Brice Turang added a home run worth 4.9 percent and Joey Ortiz followed with a double that contributed another 5.1 percent swing. The most consequential single event of the game, however, was framed in a negative outcome for Milwaukee: a Garrett Mitchell strikeout in the bottom of the second registered as a 7.8 percent swing, reflecting how loaded the situation was when he came to the plate. Despite that out, Spiers could not escape the inning without further damage. On the Cincinnati side, Jake Fraley's groundout in the top of the second against Aaron Civale cost the Reds 5.6 percent in win probability, extinguishing a potential rally before it started.
Aaron Civale was the clear pitching standout, finishing as the top pitcher by WPA at plus 7.0 percent and holding Cincinnati largely in check through the game's critical middle frames. Among Milwaukee's position players, Adames led with a combined WPA of plus 5.6 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.0, while Sal Frelick contributed plus 5.8 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24. Garrett Mitchell finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 8.6 percent despite his strikeout being logged as a win-probability swing, a reflection of the run-environment context in which his plate appearances occurred. Cincinnati's three runs in the seventh inning came too late against a Brewers club that had effectively sealed the outcome in the opening two frames.