St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals overcame a home-field Kansas City Royals squad that entered with a 57 percent pre-game win probability, ultimately prevailing 8-5 at Kauffman Stadium on August 9, 2024. The Cardinals scored in four different innings, building their advantage incrementally before breaking the game open late. Kansas City held a brief foothold through the middle innings, but St. Louis seized control for good with a decisive eighth-inning push that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a meaningful Royals edge to zero percent.

The pivotal moment came in the top of the eighth, when Victor Scott II laced a double off Chris Stratton that shifted win probability 35.5 percent in the Cardinals' favor, the single largest swing of the game. The Royals had their best opportunity to answer in the bottom half, but Maikel Garcia's lineout against Andrew Kittredge drained 22.1 percent from Kansas City's chances and effectively closed the door. Earlier, the Royals had shown life in the third inning when Kyle Isbel's triple off Miles Mikolas added 14.5 percent to their win probability, and Garcia followed with a run-scoring double in the fourth worth another 12.9 percent, keeping Kansas City competitive through the middle frames.

Scott II finished as the game's top offensive performer by win probability added at plus 25.9 percent alongside a RE24 of plus 0.4, while Willson Contreras contributed plus 17.7 percent WPA and a game-best plus 3.7 RE24, indicating his production came in high-leverage situations with meaningful run-expectancy consequences. Isbel was the Royals' most impactful bat at plus 14.1 percent WPA. On the mound, Andrew Kittredge was the most valuable arm in the game at plus 23.3 percent WPA, with Matthew Liberatore adding plus 14.3 percent and Lucas Erceg contributing plus 8.5 percent as the Cardinals' bullpen secured the final margin.