Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros silenced Fenway Park on August 9, 2024, defeating the Boston Red Sox 8-4 behind a decisive seventh-inning surge that erased what had looked like a competitive game. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Boston holding a 55% pre-game win probability, a figure that evaporated entirely by the final out. Houston finished with 16 hits against just 6 for the Red Sox, and the Astros' lone significant error did nothing to interrupt their momentum once the middle innings arrived.

The turning point arrived emphatically in the top of the seventh. Jose Altuve's home run off Lucas Sims produced the single largest win-probability swing of the game, adding 19.3% in Houston's favor, and Jon Singleton followed with a single off Zack Kelly that contributed another 12.9%. Those two plays alone reshaped the contest. Boston's best chance to answer came moments later in the bottom of the seventh, when Rafael Devers struck out against Tayler Scott at a moment that carried a 14.5% negative win-probability impact for the Red Sox. The closest Boston had come to seizing control was a David Hamilton double off Ronel Blanco in the second inning, worth 13.9% in Boston's direction, but the Red Sox could not sustain that early pressure. Romy Gonzalez's groundout against Bryan Abreu in the bottom of the eighth, costing Boston another 12.3%, effectively closed the door.

Among individual performers, Jake Meyers and Jon Singleton led Houston's position players by the DiamondIQ model's estimate at 16.3% and 15.3% WPA respectively, while Jarren Duran paced Boston's offense at 16.2% WPA and a game-high plus-1.9 RE24. On the mound, Tanner Houck was Boston's most valuable pitcher with a 20.8% WPA contribution, but it was the Astros' bullpen that sealed the outcome, with Bryan Abreu adding 13.3% and Kaleb Ort contributing another 7.6% as Houston completed the road victory with three runs in the ninth to reach the final margin.