MLB Recap · August 8, 2024

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

DET3
Final
SEA4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
DET000030000350
SEA000001003470

The Story

The Seattle Mariners completed a walk-off victory over the Detroit Tigers on August 8, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, winning 4-3 after a dramatic ninth inning that erased a 3-1 deficit. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the game giving Seattle a 58 percent chance of winning and closed at 100 percent, nearly all of that movement concentrated in the game's final moments.

Detroit appeared to be cruising toward a road win after a three-run fifth inning built on back-to-back doubles from Parker Meadows and Zach McKinstry off Bryan Woo, swings that shifted win probability by 14.5 and 13.6 percentage points respectively. Luke Raley kept Seattle within range with a solo home run off Bryan Sammons in the sixth, a blow worth 10.6 percentage points, but the Mariners still trailed heading into the ninth. A Dylan Moore groundout into a double play in the eighth had cost Seattle 17.8 percentage points of win probability, and the night looked increasingly bleak for the home side.

The decisive moment arrived in the bottom of the ninth when Mitch Haniger doubled off Will Vest, a single swing that added 85.0 percentage points of win probability and represented one of the largest single-play swings of any game this season by that measure. Haniger finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-68.9 percent, complemented by a RE24 of plus-1.4. Raley posted the second-best batting WPA at plus-22.0 with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Meadows led Detroit's offensive contributors at plus-16.3 WPA. On the pitching side, Tyler Holton led Detroit's relievers at plus-15.1 WPA, though it was ultimately not enough as Seattle stormed back for the unlikely victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025DET bats firstFinalSEA win %DET win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Mitch Haniger Double
Bot 9th · off Will Vest
+85.0%
Dylan Moore Grounded Into DP
Bot 8th · off Tyler Holton
-17.8%
Parker Meadows Double
Top 5th · off Bryan Woo
+14.5%
Zach McKinstry Double
Top 5th · off Bryan Woo
+13.6%
Luke Raley Home Run
Bot 6th · off Bryan Sammons
+10.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Mitch Haniger+68.9%+1.4 RE24
Luke Raley+22.0%+1.6 RE24
Parker Meadows+16.3%+1.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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