Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-4 at Chase Field on August 8, 2024, in a game that remained tight through four scoreless innings before unraveling in a decisive sixth. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Arizona entering with a 48% chance of winning, a figure that steadily eroded and finished at 0% as Philadelphia seized control through a series of high-leverage offensive moments concentrated in the middle innings.

The sixth inning was the turning point of the game. Trea Turner's single off Dylan Floro delivered the biggest win-probability swing of the night, shifting the Phillies' chances by 21.2%, and Weston Wilson followed with a double off Jordan Montgomery worth an additional 15.2% swing, as Philadelphia plated four runs in the frame to build a commanding lead. Arizona mounted a response in the bottom of the sixth when Jake McCarthy launched a home run off Orion Kerkering, a swing worth 19.8% in win probability that briefly tightened things, but the Diamondbacks could not fully close the gap. Eugenio Suárez had given Arizona its first run with a solo home run off Kolby Allard in the fifth, a play that moved the needle 13.0%, while J.T. Realmuto answered emphatically with a home run off Slade Cecconi in the seventh worth 13.4%.

Among the individual standouts, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. led all position players with a WPA of plus-25.1% and a RE24 of plus-0.5, while Jake McCarthy was the most productive Diamondback at plus-15.9% WPA and plus-2.4 RE24. Bryce Harper contributed plus-10.4% WPA for Philadelphia. On the pitching side, José Alvarado was the most impactful arm in the game at plus-13.3% WPA, with Jeff Hoffman adding plus-8.8% and Kolby Allard contributing plus-7.4% in a losing effort for Arizona. Philadelphia's 14-hit attack proved too much for the Diamondbacks despite Arizona's 11-hit night of their own.