San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants defeated the Washington Nationals 9-5 in ten innings at Nationals Park on August 8, 2024, in a game that swung dramatically in its final frames. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with Washington holding a slim 48% win probability, but the contest's decisive turns came late. With the Giants leading in the top of the ninth, Mark Canha delivered a double off Kyle Finnegan that shifted win probability by +43.2%, extending San Francisco's advantage before the game took a stunning turn. Luis García Jr. then erased that edge entirely, launching a two-run home run off Camilo Doval in the bottom of the ninth that swung win probability +50.1% in Washington's favor and knotted the game, sending it to extras.

The tenth inning belonged entirely to San Francisco. Mike Yastrzemski reached on a fielder's choice off Robert Garcia that moved win probability +32.0%, and Michael Conforto followed with a single worth +26.6%, as the Giants batted around to plate four runs and put the game out of reach. Washington managed three runs in the bottom of the ninth but could not replicate that output in the tenth, finishing with five errors on the night that compounded their difficulties. The model's estimate of Washington's win probability fell from 48% before first pitch to 0% by game's end, a reflection of how thoroughly San Francisco controlled the extra frame.

Canha led all position players with a +55.8% WPA and +2.0 RE24, while García Jr. was the game's most impactful individual moment despite pitching for the losing side, finishing at +52.1% WPA and +2.8 RE24. Yastrzemski added +35.4% WPA in the decisive tenth. On the mound, Derek Law paced the Giants' relief corps at +18.9% WPA, followed by Jacob Barnes at +12.6% and Ryan Walker at +10.9%, as San Francisco's bullpen ultimately secured the win after Doval's ninth-inning stumble.