Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

The Kansas City Royals defeated the Boston Red Sox 8-4 on August 7, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Kansas City win beginning at 56% before first pitch and climbing to 100% by the final out. The game swung decisively in the fourth inning, when the Royals erased a brief Boston lead and took command for good. Boston had grabbed momentum in the top of the third when Romy Gonzalez hit a home run off Cole Ragans, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 27.0 percentage points in the Red Sox's favor and briefly made it a 3-1 game. Danny Jansen added another solo shot off Ragans in the top of the fourth for a plus 10.4 percentage point swing, pushing Boston to a 4-1 advantage, though Nick Sogard grounded into a double play in the same frame, costing the Red Sox 6.0 percentage points of win probability and leaving runs off the board at a critical moment.

Kansas City answered with a bottom-of-the-fourth inning that effectively ended the contest. Bobby Witt Jr. delivered a double off Kutter Crawford that shifted the probability by plus 20.2 percentage points, followed closely by Vinnie Pasquantino's home run off Brennan Bernardino, which added another plus 19.8 percentage points. Those two swings formed the spine of a five-run frame that put the Royals ahead for good. Witt finished as the game's most impactful performer with a plus 31.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 3.6, while Gonzalez led all Red Sox batters at plus 26.3 percent WPA and plus 2.4 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Pasquantino contributed plus 16.6 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24. On the pitching side, Kansas City reliever Lucas Erceg was the most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting plus 5.8 percent WPA as the bullpen locked down the final innings without incident.