Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 5-2 at Busch Stadium on August 7, 2024, pulling away with a pair of two-run innings in the third and fourth. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 55 percent home win probability for St. Louis, and that figure climbed steadily to 100 percent by game's end. The scoring was front-loaded, with the Cardinals plating their five runs across the third and fourth innings against Rays starter Taj Bradley, while Tampa Bay managed just two runs on the afternoon, one each in the third and sixth.

The decisive stretch began in the bottom of the third, when Nolan Arenado laced a double off Bradley that carried a win-probability swing of plus 13.3 percent, the single largest play of the game. Willson Contreras followed with a single worth plus 5.4 percent, compounding the damage in that inning. St. Louis kept the pressure on in the fourth, where Alec Burleson added a double off Bradley that swung win probability by plus 11.7 percent. Tampa Bay's most meaningful response came in the top of the sixth, when Jose Siri drew a walk off Ryan Fernandez that moved the needle plus 12.3 percent for the Rays, though Jose Caballero's sac fly in the same frame limited the damage, carrying a minus 8.7 percent swing against Tampa Bay's chances.

By individual contribution, Burleson led all position players with a WPA of plus 14.6 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.7, while Arenado finished at plus 12.9 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24 to anchor the Cardinals' offensive production. On the mound, Erick Fedde paced the pitching staff with a plus 8.7 percent WPA, followed by JoJo Romero at plus 7.5 percent, as St. Louis's bullpen held the Rays scoreless from the sixth inning onward to close out the win.