Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Atlanta Braves an 8-5 defeat at Truist Park on August 7, 2024, handing the home side a final win probability of 0% after entering the game as a 50-50 proposition according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Milwaukee collected 16 hits on the night against Atlanta's 10, committing no errors while the Braves were charged with one. The Brewers built their lead incrementally, scoring in the third, fifth, sixth, and eighth innings, while Atlanta's offense could not sustain a late-game push, scoring only a single run in the ninth after Milwaukee had already done its damage.

The game's single largest swing came in the bottom of the fifth, when Austin Riley connected on a home run off Freddy Peralta that shifted win probability by 25.2 percentage points in Atlanta's favor, briefly making it a competitive moment. However, Milwaukee answered in the top of the sixth when Blake Perkins delivered a single off A.J. Minter that swung win probability 19.0 points back toward the Brewers, effectively neutralizing Riley's blast and restoring Milwaukee's grip on the game. Earlier in the fifth, Joey Ortiz had contributed a single off Chris Sale worth 11.9 points of win probability, and Perkins added another single in that same frame for 10.1 points. Ortiz extended the advantage further with a double off Dylan Dodd in the eighth, good for an additional 9.8 points.

Ortiz finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus-33.0% WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.2, the strongest run-context contribution on either side. Perkins was nearly his equal at plus-27.9% WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, while Riley led all Braves hitters at plus-28.1% WPA despite his team's loss. On the mound, Milwaukee's bullpen closed things out efficiently, with Joel Payamps contributing plus-8.8% WPA and Nick Mears adding plus-7.5%, while Aaron Bummer chipped in plus-4.2% to preserve the three-run final margin.