Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The Detroit Tigers handed the Cincinnati Reds a 5-1 defeat at Great American Ball Park on July 7, 2024, holding a team the DiamondIQ model had given a 54 percent pre-game win probability to just one run on four hits. Detroit's offense was quiet through six innings before breaking the game open in the seventh and eighth, finishing with 12 hits against a Cincinnati staff that could not contain the Tigers' lineup late.
The turning point arrived in the top of the eighth inning, when Zach McKinstry launched a home run off Alexis Díaz that shifted win probability by 27.5 percentage points, effectively sealing the outcome. The seventh inning had already set the stage, as Matt Vierling's double off Nick Martinez swung things 9.7 points in Detroit's favor and Colt Keith followed with a single worth another 9.2 points. Cincinnati's best moment came in the bottom of the seventh, when Jeimer Candelario doubled off Tarik Skubal for a 10.2-point swing, but the Reds were unable to capitalize beyond that single run. Mark Canha's grounded into double play in the top of the seventh briefly stalled Detroit's momentum, costing the Tigers 10.0 points of win probability before Keith's single restored it.
Among the game's standout performers by DiamondIQ metrics, McKinstry led all batters with a 25.2 percent WPA and a 1.4 RE24, while Keith added 14.3 percent WPA and a 1.0 RE24, and Gio Urshela contributed 12.3 percent WPA alongside a 1.3 RE24. On the mound, Tarik Skubal led all pitchers with a 26.7 percent WPA, keeping Cincinnati's lineup in check long enough for Detroit's offense to pull away decisively in the game's final three innings.