New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets took a low-scoring, tension-filled contest at PNC Park on July 7, 2024, edging the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2 in a game that stayed scoreless through seven innings before erupting in the final two frames. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 51 percent home win probability for Pittsburgh, but the Mets seized control late and closed that number all the way to zero.

The decisive sequence began in the eighth inning, when Brandon Nimmo delivered a double off Colin Holderman that shifted win probability 22.3 points in New York's favor, sparking a Mets rally that gave them a lead heading into the bottom half. Pittsburgh answered in the eighth against Edwin Díaz, as Nick Gonzales singled to swing the window 33.6 points toward the Pirates and temporarily knotting or threatening the margin, with Gonzales finishing as Pittsburgh's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-29.5 percent and plus-1.1 RE24. The Pirates nearly completed the comeback when Jack Suwinski grounded out in the bottom of the ninth off Díaz, a play that actually moved Pittsburgh's win probability 31.6 points in their direction in the moment, leaving them with runners still needing to score.

Ultimately it was Francisco Lindor who settled the outcome, delivering a single off Aroldis Chapman in the top of the ninth that generated a staggering plus-62.2 percent win probability swing, the single most impactful play of the game. Lindor led all players by a wide margin with a cumulative WPA of plus-63.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.6. Mark Vientos struck out against Chapman for a minus-13.8 percent swing, a moment that briefly kept Pittsburgh's hopes breathing, but Díaz closed the door in the ninth. On the pitching side, Sean Manaea led Mets starters with plus-29.6 percent WPA, while Luis Ortiz paced Pittsburgh's staff at plus-28.7 percent despite the loss, and the DiamondIQ model ultimately favored the Mets as the late-inning execution bore out.