San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-4 at Progressive Field on July 7, 2024, in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 69 percent in Cleveland's favor and closed at 100 percent. San Francisco grabbed the early lead, plating two runs in the second inning and one more in the third off Hayden Birdsong, but the Guardians gradually clawed back and ultimately delivered the decisive blow in the sixth to claim the win.

The single most consequential play of the night came in the bottom of the sixth, when Bo Naylor connected on a home run off Sean Hjelle that shifted win probability by 40.0 percentage points in Cleveland's favor. That swing was the backbone of a three-run sixth inning that turned a deficit into a lead the Guardians never relinquished. Earlier in the fourth, Daniel Schneemann's double added 13.2 percentage points and José Ramírez followed with a double worth another 11.8 percentage points, both off Birdsong, as Cleveland chipped into what had been a three-run Giants advantage. Tyler Freeman factored into the model's swings as well, though in a costly direction, with a lineout in the second costing 10.5 percentage points and a fielder's choice out in the fourth surrendering another 10.2 percentage points.

Naylor finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a WPA of plus 41.8 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.6, making his sixth-inning blast the definitive moment of the contest. Schneemann and Angel Martínez also contributed positively at plus 8.9 and plus 7.9 WPA respectively. On the pitching side, Birdsong led Giants starters with a WPA of plus 9.6 despite allowing the comeback runs, while Hunter Gaddis added plus 8.1 and Tim Herrin contributed plus 7.2 out of the Cleveland bullpen to preserve the one-run victory.