Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs shut out the Los Angeles Angels 5-0 at Wrigley Field on July 7, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected almost from the start, with pre-game home win probability set at 59% before climbing steadily to 100% by the final out. Chicago's pitching staff controlled the Angels throughout, holding them to just three hits while the Cubs offense built a lead methodically across three separate innings.

The decisive sequences were concentrated in the third and seventh innings. In the bottom of the third, Miguel Amaya delivered a single off José Soriano that shifted win probability by 6.1%, and Miles Mastrobuoni followed with a fielders choice that added another 5.3%, giving Chicago an early two-run cushion. The Angels offered their most credible threat in the top of the seventh when Willie Calhoun drew a walk off Hayden Wesneski to move the needle 5.0% in Los Angeles's favor, but Zach Neto immediately erased that momentum with a flyout off Porter Hodge that swung win probability back 6.6%. Michael Busch then put the game away in the bottom of the seventh with a home run off Matt Moore worth 6.0% in win probability, pushing the Cubs to their final five-run margin.

Among individual performers, Hayden Wesneski led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-16.6%, the single largest contribution of the night on either side. Porter Hodge added plus-10.7% out of the bullpen, making the seventh-inning escape particularly consequential. At the plate, Amaya finished as the top batter by a wide margin at plus-10.4% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24, with Nico Hoerner contributing plus-5.2% WPA and plus-0.7 RE24 in support. The Angels never generated the kind of sustained pressure required to threaten a Cubs staff that was in command from the third inning forward.