Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The Detroit Tigers erased a two-run deficit with a five-run eighth inning to defeat the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 at Great American Ball Park on July 6, 2024. Cincinnati had held a 2-0 lead through seven innings after Tyler Stephenson's fifth-inning double off Beau Brieske, a hit that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate in the Reds' favor by 12.7 percentage points. Detroit entered the eighth trailing and facing a bullpen that could not hold, and by the time the inning ended the DiamondIQ model's estimate had swung from a comfortable Cincinnati position to a Tigers' runaway, finishing at 0% for the home side after opening at a 55% pre-game home win probability.
The eighth inning was where the game was decided, and Wenceel Pérez was its central figure. His home run off Fernando Cruz added 26.0 percentage points of win probability to Detroit's ledger, the single most impactful play of the night by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Mark Canha followed with a double off Sam Moll worth 19.4 percentage points, and Carson Kelly added another double off Lucas Sims that pushed Detroit's advantage further, contributing 9.6 percentage points. The three-hit barrage off three different Cincinnati relievers produced all five Detroit runs and rendered the Reds' ninth-inning rally meaningless, though Andrew Chafin's strikeout of Santiago Espinal to strand a threat added 12.0 percentage points to Detroit's closing probability.
On the pitching side, Hunter Greene was the DiamondIQ model's top performer despite finishing on the losing end of the decision, contributing plus-33.3 percentage points of win probability across his outing for Cincinnati. Shelby Miller and Alex Faedo provided additional stability out of the Detroit bullpen, adding 7.8 and 7.3 percentage points respectively. Detroit finished with seven hits and no errors while Cincinnati committed one, a clean execution edge that complemented the Tigers' decisive late-game power.