Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| COL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Colorado Rockies defeated the Kansas City Royals 3-1 at Coors Field on July 6, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Colorado win climbing from 37% before first pitch all the way to 100% by the final out. The Rockies built their margin early and protected it throughout, holding Kansas City to a single run despite the Royals collecting eight hits on the night.
The game's most consequential moment came in the bottom of the second inning, when Brenton Doyle connected on a home run off Seth Lugo that shifted win probability by plus 11.5 percentage points in Colorado's favor. The Rockies added another run in the fifth on a Ryan McMahon single off Lugo, a hit that moved the needle another plus 7.8 points. Kansas City's best response came in the top of the sixth, when Vinnie Pasquantino launched a solo home run off Austin Gomber for a plus 8.3-point swing, briefly tightening the margin. However, Pasquantino's groundout in the top of the eighth against Tyler Kinley erased minus 8.9 points of Kansas City's win probability, and a Garrett Hampson pop out in the seventh off Gomber had already cost the Royals minus 7.8 points, effectively snuffing out both of those threats.
Austin Gomber was the game's most impactful performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with plus 31.8 WPA on the mound. Tyler Kinley added plus 8.1 and Victor Vodnik contributed plus 6.3, rounding out a Colorado bullpen that held firm late. Among position players, Hunter Renfroe led all batters with plus 13.6 WPA and a plus 0.8 RE24, while Doyle posted plus 10.7 WPA and a team-best plus 1.9 RE24, and McMahon contributed plus 9.3 WPA with a plus 1.5 RE24 in a balanced Rockies offensive effort.