Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks rallied past the San Diego Padres 7-5 in ten innings at Petco Park on July 6, 2024, completing a comeback that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 57 percent pre-game home win probability for San Diego. The Padres held a lead deep into regulation, but Arizona's offense kept chipping away before the game was ultimately decided by a three-run Arizona tenth that the Padres could not answer. Kevin Ginkel led all pitchers by WPA at plus-23.2 percent, with Adrian Morejon and Bryce Jarvis contributing plus-13.5 and plus-13.0 percent respectively, holding San Diego in check at critical moments and keeping Arizona's path to the win open.
The decisive blow came in the top of the tenth when Geraldo Perdomo delivered a single off Wandy Peralta that swung win probability by plus-32.0 percent, the largest single-play shift of the game. Christian Walker followed with another single off Peralta, adding plus-19.9 percent, as Arizona pushed across three runs in the frame to take a commanding 7-4 lead. San Diego had briefly threatened to flip the game in the bottom of the eighth, where Ha-Seong Kim drilled a double off Ryan Thompson for a plus-22.5 percent swing, and the Padres had also drawn even in the seventh on a Jurickson Profar double off Joe Mantiply worth plus-14.1 percent. Jose Herrera's double off Yuki Matsui in the top of the seventh, a plus-15.0 percent play, proved critical in keeping Arizona positioned to strike late.
Perdomo finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-36.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, a fitting reflection of his outsized role in the Arizona victory. Ha-Seong Kim posted plus-20.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.8 in a losing effort, while Donovan Solano contributed plus-20.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4 for San Diego. Despite the Padres collecting 14 hits to Arizona's 9, they were unable to convert that production into enough runs when it mattered most, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate settled at zero percent for a San Diego win by the final out.