Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays held off the Seattle Mariners 5-4 at T-Mobile Park on July 6, 2024, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 62 percent win probability in Seattle's favor. The game remained scoreless through three innings before Toronto scratched out single runs in the fourth, fifth, and seventh, while Seattle's bats went quiet until a chaotic eighth inning. The Blue Jays finished with 11 hits and committed no errors, while Seattle managed only 6 hits and was hurt by 2 errors of their own.
The decisive stretch came in the eighth inning, where the game swung dramatically in both directions. Mitch Haniger's home run off Trevor Richards moved Seattle's win probability up by 17.9 percent, and Dylan Moore followed with a single off Brendon Little that added another 8.9 percent, pulling the Mariners to within one and briefly making T-Mobile Park a genuine threat. Toronto ultimately pushed across two runs of their own in the top half, however, and the game's single most impactful moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Dominic Canzone popped out against Chad Green with the bases occupied, a sequence that shifted win probability by 31.6 percent and effectively ended Seattle's last real chance. Earlier, Alejandro Kirk's fourth-inning double off Emerson Hancock had opened the scoring with a 12.8 percent win-probability swing, while Ty France's double play in the bottom of the fourth cost Seattle 11.1 percent on the probability ledger.
Yariel Rodríguez was the standout performer of the night by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a 36.2 percent WPA contribution from the mound to lead all players in the game. Kirk finished as the top offensive contributor among Blue Jays position players with 18.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Haniger led Seattle's offense at 12.0 percent WPA and plus-1.7 RE24 despite his team's defeat. Canzone's pop out loomed as the game's final defining moment, a would-be rally extinguished in a single at-bat as the model's estimate moved to zero percent for the home side.