Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox erased a three-run deficit to defeat the New York Yankees 5-3 at Yankee Stadium on July 5, 2024, completing the comeback in extra innings. New York had built its advantage with a three-run fourth inning and carried that lead into the late stages, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win sitting well below even for much of the contest. The Yankees entered the ninth with a 3-1 lead and the model heavily favoring a home victory, but Masataka Yoshida delivered a home run off Clay Holmes that shifted win probability by 36.8 percentage points, pulling Boston to within one and fundamentally changing the game's trajectory. A Ben Rice pop out in the bottom half represented a 14.0-point swing in Boston's favor as the Red Sox escaped the inning still alive.
The decisive blow came in the tenth, when Ceddanne Rafaela hit a home run off Tommy Kahnle that produced the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 51.7 percentage points, pushing Boston ahead 5-3 and moving the DiamondIQ model's estimate to a near-certain Red Sox outcome. Rafaela finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting a combined plus 56.4 percent and plus 2.1 RE24 on the evening. Kenley Jansen closed the door in the bottom of the tenth, aided in part by Aaron Judge's pop out, which represented a 13.3-point swing in Boston's direction. Juan Soto's single had briefly applied pressure with a 24.5-point swing for New York, but it proved insufficient.
On the pitching side, Luke Weaver led Boston's staff with plus 15.3 percent WPA, followed closely by Nestor Cortes at plus 14.3 percent, while Bailey Horn contributed plus 7.6 percent. The Yankees' bullpen, by contrast, surrendered both late home runs that ultimately decided the outcome. The DiamondIQ model had opened with the Yankees as 59 percent favorites given the home-field context, making Yoshida's and Rafaela's back-to-back extra-inning performances all the more consequential in reversing what had appeared to be a straightforward New York victory.