Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Atlanta Braves 8-6 at Truist Park on July 5, 2024, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 42 percent pre-game home win probability down to zero. Philadelphia outhit Atlanta 15 to 8 and committed no errors, while the Braves were charged with three, a disparity that helped define the margin through a game that remained competitive deep into the eighth inning.

The decisive offensive force was Trea Turner, whose two home runs off Max Fried accounted for the two largest win-probability swings of the contest. His fourth-inning blast carried a +19.6 percent win-probability impact for Philadelphia, and his sixth-inning shot added another +20.3 percent, giving him a combined WPA of +38.2 and an RE24 of +3.1, easily the most impactful individual performance of the night by the DiamondIQ model's accounting. Atlanta briefly applied pressure through Austin Riley, whose fourth-inning home run off Aaron Nola registered +18.0 percent in Atlanta's favor, and Marcell Ozuna's eighth-inning shot off José Alvarado produced a +10.7 percent swing that made it a two-run game. Ozzie Albies also contributed meaningfully with a +13.4 percent WPA on the night.

Philadelphia's bullpen ultimately secured the outcome, with Orion Kerkering and Dylan Lee each adding positive WPA contributions after starter Aaron Nola finished as the staff's lowest-rated pitcher at -6.0 percent. The final out of the ninth, a strikeout of Eli White by Jeff Hoffman, sealed the win with a +14.4 percent probability swing, confirming what the DiamondIQ model had already reflected — a Phillies victory that was never seriously in doubt once Turner's sixth-inning home run extended the lead.