New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the New York Mets a lopsided 14-2 defeat at PNC Park on July 5, 2024, turning what opened as a relatively even contest into a rout by the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Pirates a 53 percent home win probability, and that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out. Jeff McNeil gave the Mets a brief moment of hope with a solo home run off Paul Skenes in the top of the third, but Pittsburgh answered and never looked back, ultimately outpacing New York 16-5 in hits while both clubs committed one error.

The fourth inning proved to be the game's decisive sequence, as Luis Severino surrendered back-to-back home runs to Jack Suwinski and Rowdy Tellez, swings that added 12.1 and 11.4 percentage points of win probability for Pittsburgh respectively. Bryan Reynolds followed with another Severino home run in the fifth, contributing an additional 11.1 percentage points. A Joshua Palacios groundout into a double play in the bottom of the third had briefly stalled Pittsburgh momentum at a cost of 8.6 percentage points, but Severino could not contain the Pirates lineup once the fourth inning arrived. Pittsburgh continued to pile on through the seventh and eighth innings, adding four and six runs in those frames to put the game entirely beyond reach.

Bryan Reynolds led all position players by the DiamondIQ model's measure, finishing with a 18.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.2, while Rowdy Tellez posted a RE24 of plus-4.0 alongside his 9.2 percent WPA contribution. Michael A. Taylor also factored prominently at plus-11.4 percent WPA and plus-2.4 RE24. On the mound, Paul Skenes was the standout performer, generating plus-11.2 percent WPA while limiting the Mets to their two runs and keeping Pittsburgh in a position to build the advantage the offense ultimately delivered.