St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals survived a back-and-forth contest at Nationals Park on July 5, 2024, outlasting the Washington Nationals 7-6 in eleven innings. Washington had built a five-run lead through the first three frames, but St. Louis chipped away before Willson Contreras delivered the defining blow of the night. With the Cardinals trailing heading into the top of the ninth, Contreras connected on a home run off Kyle Finnegan that swung win probability by 35.7 points, erasing what had appeared to be a comfortable Washington cushion and forcing extra innings. Nolan Gorman then added a single off Dylan Floro in the top of the tenth that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 31.3 points, giving St. Louis the lead it would ultimately protect.

Washington did not go quietly, and the Cardinals were forced to navigate genuine late danger. Keibert Ruiz singled off Ryan Helsley in the bottom of the tenth for a 20.4-point swing, and Jesse Winker followed with a flyout that nonetheless moved the needle 23.7 points as the Nationals kept the tying run in motion. Lane Thomas recorded a groundout to end the bottom of the eleventh that represented a 27.0-point swing for St. Louis, sealing the win. Contreras finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a cumulative WPA of plus-50.2 and an RE24 of plus-2.0, while Gorman posted plus-40.9 WPA and plus-1.6 RE24. On the mound, Ryan Fernandez led St. Louis relievers at plus-8.0 WPA, followed by Robert Garcia at plus-6.4 and Hunter Harvey at plus-5.2. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game with Washington holding a 48 percent win probability; by the final out, that figure had fallen to zero.