Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 8-5 on July 5, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 56 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game's single most consequential swing came in the top of the fourth inning, when Rhys Hoskins launched a home run off Tyler Glasnow that added 28.6 percent win probability for Milwaukee, briefly threatening to upend a contest the model had already tilted toward the home side. Los Angeles answered immediately in the bottom half, as Miguel Vargas hit a home run off Aaron Civale to claw back 18.0 percent win probability and keep the Dodgers competitive heading into the middle innings.

Los Angeles then seized control through a pair of decisive late-game moments. Will Smith's home run off Bryan Hudson in the bottom of the seventh added 18.5 percent win probability and gave the Dodgers a lead they would not relinquish, though a Miguel Rojas forceout in that same inning against Hudson briefly cost the home side 11.6 percent. Freddie Freeman delivered the knockout blow in the bottom of the eighth, singling off Hoby Milner for a 27.1 percent win-probability swing that effectively closed out the Brewers, who finished the night with just four hits.

Smith was the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing at plus-38.2 percent WPA and plus-3.6 RE24, while Freeman contributed plus-24.0 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24 in support. On the Milwaukee side, Hoskins produced the Brewers' most impactful moment with plus-23.1 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24 despite the loss. Among pitchers, Daniel Hudson led all relievers at plus-10.6 percent WPA, followed by Joel Payamps at plus-7.9 percent and Blake Treinen at plus-6.6 percent as Los Angeles closed out the 8-5 victory.