Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs handed the Philadelphia Phillies a 10-2 defeat at Wrigley Field on July 4, 2024, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs victory from 34% before first pitch all the way to 100% by the final out. Philadelphia scored first with a run in the top of the first inning, but Chicago answered with a decisive five-run fourth inning that effectively ended the competitive portion of the game, then added three more in the fifth to put the outcome beyond doubt. The Cubs finished with 12 hits while committing no errors, compared to six hits and no errors for Philadelphia.

The pivotal moment of the game arrived in the bottom of the fourth inning, when Ian Happ launched a home run off Cristopher Sánchez that swung win probability 27.4 points in Chicago's favor, the single largest play of the contest. That inning continued to unravel for the Phillies as Nico Hoerner followed with a single worth 7.6 points of win probability and David Bote added a double worth 7.5 points, both also against Sánchez. Nick Castellanos had provided a brief counter-punch with a home run off Jameson Taillon in the top of the fourth worth 11.2 points, but Happ's response immediately erased that momentum.

Happ was the clear standout performer, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-37.0 and an RE24 of plus-5.8 after going deep twice, adding a second home run off Seranthony Domínguez in the bottom of the fifth worth another 7.8 points of win probability. On the pitching side, Jameson Taillon led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-12.3, providing the Cubs the stability needed to protect their advantage. Castellanos ranked second among position players at plus-8.4 WPA, while Cody Bellinger contributed plus-7.3 WPA as Chicago's lineup distributed the damage broadly across a dominant holiday victory.