MLB Recap · July 4, 2024

San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

SD3
Final
TEX1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SD000101100390
TEX000001000160

The Story

The San Diego Padres defeated the Texas Rangers 3-1 on July 4, 2024, at Globe Life Field, holding the home side to a single run across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Texas holding a 46 percent pre-game win probability, a figure that eroded steadily before closing at zero as San Diego's pitching staff stifled the Rangers lineup.

The game's most consequential sequence arrived in the top of the sixth, when Jurickson Profar connected on a home run off Max Scherzer, a swing that shifted win probability by 13.0 percent in San Diego's favor. The game had already begun to tilt in the fourth inning, when Donovan Solano doubled off Scherzer for an 11.6 percent swing that gave the Padres the game's first run. Texas responded in the bottom of the sixth on a Wyatt Langford single off Jeremiah Estrada that added 11.8 percent in the Rangers' direction, briefly keeping the contest competitive. San Diego answered with a seventh-inning run, and the Rangers' last meaningful threat came in the bottom of the ninth when Jonah Heim grounded out against Robert Suarez, a play that represented a 12.0 percent swing that went unrewarded.

Donovan Solano finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-18.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.6. Profar contributed plus-15.5 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Langford led Texas batters at plus-14.2 percent WPA despite appearing on the losing side. On the mound, Michael King led all pitchers at plus-14.4 percent WPA, supported by Adrian Morejon at plus-13.3 percent and Estrada at plus-9.5 percent as the trio combined to limit the Rangers to one run over the final frames.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SD bats firstFinalTEX win %SD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 46.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jurickson Profar Home Run
Top 6th · off Max Scherzer
+13.0%
Jonah Heim Groundout
Bot 9th · off Robert Suarez
+12.0%
Wyatt Langford Single
Bot 6th · off Jeremiah Estrada
+11.8%
Donovan Solano Double
Top 4th · off Max Scherzer
+11.6%
Josh Smith Single
Bot 8th · off Adrian Morejon
+8.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Donovan Solano+18.6%+1.6 RE24
Jurickson Profar+15.5%+1.3 RE24
Wyatt Langford+14.2%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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