Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks spoiled the Dodgers' Fourth of July at home, rolling to a 9-3 victory at Dodger Stadium on July 4, 2024. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving Los Angeles a 65 percent chance of winning, but that edge evaporated quickly and never returned, with the model's final estimate settling at zero percent for the home side. Arizona plated two runs in the first inning and added two more in the third, building a lead that the Dodgers were never able to fully close despite a three-run fourth of their own. A four-run Arizona ninth sealed the outcome, as the Diamondbacks finished with 12 hits and committed no errors while holding Los Angeles to just six hits and forcing an error from the home club.

The decisive swings in win probability told the story of a game Arizona controlled from the jump. Christian Walker's home run off Landon Knack in the top of the third was the most consequential offensive blow by Arizona, shifting win probability by plus-15.9 percent and establishing Walker as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-15.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.2. The Dodgers' most significant counter came in the bottom of the fourth, when Austin Barnes hit a single off Zac Gallen that generated a plus-16.8 percent swing, representing the single largest individual play of the game. That moment briefly tightened things, but Ketel Marte responded with a run-scoring single off Anthony Banda in the fifth worth plus-11.1 percent in win probability, effectively extinguishing any Los Angeles momentum. Barnes had been a double-edged figure, as his groundout in the second had already cost the Dodgers minus-10.4 percent, compounding the damage from Jason Heyward's first-inning groundout at minus-9.1 percent.

On the mound, Arizona's bullpen was the backbone of the win. Justin Martinez led all pitchers with a plus-22.8 percent WPA, and Ryan Thompson contributed plus-13.3 percent, with Alex Vesia adding plus-4.2 percent on the Los Angeles side as the only Dodger reliever to produce positive value. Zac Gallen navigated the Dodger lineup well enough to maintain Arizona's advantage through the early innings, while Chris Taylor rounded out the notable offensive contributors for the Diamondbacks at plus-7.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.7. The DiamondIQ model's lean throughout was firmly toward Arizona once the third inning concluded, and the final margin of six runs reflected exactly how complete a road victory it was.