St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-2 in ten innings at PNC Park on July 4, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 49 percent home win probability before the game to zero percent at its conclusion. The game was scoreless through three innings before St. Louis pushed a run across in the second and Pittsburgh answered with one of its own in the fourth, setting up a tense back-and-forth that remained knotted through nine. The Cardinals broke the deadlock in the top of the tenth, with Pedro Pagés delivering a double off Dennis Santana that shifted win probability by 18.7 points in St. Louis's favor, followed by Alec Burleson's single, worth 20.3 points of win probability, to push across what proved to be the decisive insurance run. A José Fermín groundout added another 16.4 points of win probability as the Cardinals plated two in the frame to take a 3-1 lead.

Pittsburgh made things uncomfortable in the bottom of the tenth, but the Cardinals pitching staff ultimately held. Edward Olivares contributed a flyout in the ninth that added 14.0 points to St. Louis's win probability against John King, and when Andrew McCutchen grounded into a forceout in the tenth, that play carried a 21.4-point swing that reflected how close the Pirates came to extending the game, ultimately leaving them one run short at 3-2. Alec Burleson led all position players with a WPA of plus-20.9 and an RE24 of plus-0.7, while McCutchen finished at plus-16.3 WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.9. On the mound, Martín Pérez was the standout performer with a plus-34.0 WPA, followed by Andre Pallante at plus-28.2 and Colin Holderman at plus-13.5, as the Cardinals staff combined to suppress Pittsburgh's offense across 11 hits and zero errors on a night when the model leaned toward an even contest before St. Louis took control in extra innings.