Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox handed the Cleveland Guardians an 8-2 defeat at Progressive Field on July 3, 2024, completing a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate made improbable entering the evening. Cleveland carried an 83% pre-game win probability, yet the White Sox dismantled that advantage inning by inning before the model's final estimate settled at 0% for the home side.

The decisive sequence came in the fourth inning, where Chicago broke the game open against Gavin Williams. Andrew Benintendi delivered a double that shifted win probability by plus 15.4 percentage points in Chicago's favor, and Martín Maldonado followed with a single worth plus 12.2 percentage points, part of a four-run frame that effectively ended Cleveland's realistic path to a comeback. Benintendi finished among the game's top performers by WPA at plus 13.6%, while Lenyn Sosa contributed plus 18.2% win probability across the game, including a first-inning flyout that added plus 9.6 percentage points in what proved an early sign of Chicago's offensive persistence. Maldonado led all batters with plus 23.0% WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.3, making him the single most impactful offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's accounting.

On the mound, Erick Fedde was the story for Chicago, posting a game-leading plus 33.5% WPA. Cleveland's best opportunities to claw back were neutralized early, with Steven Kwan's second-inning lineout off Fedde costing the Guardians 13.5 percentage points of win probability and David Fry's first-inning strikeout removing another 11.9 points. Fedde's ability to suppress those early threats allowed the White Sox offense to take over, and Chicago finished with 12 hits, no errors, and a final margin that left Cleveland's pre-game probability as a distant memory.