Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers handed the Minnesota Twins a lopsided 9-2 defeat at Target Field on July 3, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 64 percent pre-game home win probability for Minnesota and reducing it to zero by the final out. The Tigers did the bulk of their damage in the third inning, turning a scoreless game into a commanding lead through a sequence of decisive swings. Carson Kelly delivered the decisive blow, a home run off David Festa that swung win probability by 33.1 percent in Detroit's favor, the single largest play of the game by a wide margin. Wenceel Pérez added a home run of his own in the same frame off Festa, contributing a further 5.8 percent swing, and the Tigers plated five total runs in the third to effectively end the contest. Minnesota's Christian Vázquez answered with a solo home run off Keider Montero in the bottom of the third, a 6.0 percent positive swing for the home side, but it amounted to little more than a footnote against Detroit's growing advantage.

Kelly finished as the game's most impactful player, accumulating a total WPA of plus-35.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.7, numbers that reflect just how thoroughly his at-bats altered the game's trajectory. Willi Castro contributed a plus-7.4 percent WPA, while Riley Greene posted plus-6.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5, helping Detroit extend its lead with two additional runs in the fifth and two more in the ninth. On the mound, Keider Montero was the standout performer despite pitching for the winning side in a less-than-intuitive sense — his plus-14.9 percent WPA led all pitchers, reflecting his ability to limit further damage and keep Minnesota's deficits from compounding even faster after the third-inning explosion. Detroit finished with 11 hits and no errors, while Minnesota managed 8 hits but could not convert against a Tigers pitching staff that held firm after the early offensive burst.