Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handed the New York Yankees a 3-2 defeat at Yankee Stadium on July 3, 2024, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of just 33 percent in their favor. Cincinnati scored twice in the second inning and added a third run in the fifth, while New York's offense managed only a two-run seventh, leaving the Reds to protect a one-run lead through the final frames. Andrew Abbott led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-39.4 percent, anchoring the Cincinnati effort across his innings, and he received critical late support from Justin Wilson and Tommy Kahnle, who contributed plus-18.7 and plus-7.4 percent respectively to close out the Yankees.
The game's decisive sequence unfolded in the final two innings. In the bottom of the seventh, Anthony Volpe's double off Fernando Cruz generated a plus-16.4 percent swing and ignited what became the Yankees' only scoring rally, but Aaron Judge immediately blunted the threat by grounding into a double play, a minus-20.8 percent swing that effectively stalled New York's momentum. The ninth inning produced the two most impactful individual plays of the game: Juan Soto's flyout off Alexis Díaz registered a stunning plus-31.6 percent win-probability swing, indicating how tightly the game sat in the balance, before Anthony Volpe grounded into a double play to end it at minus-27.2 percent, sealing Cincinnati's road victory.
Among hitters, Juan Soto finished as the game's top WPA performer despite his team's loss, posting plus-45.8 percent and a plus-0.9 RE24, a reflection of the sustained pressure he applied throughout the night. Austin Wells contributed plus-17.1 percent WPA and plus-0.6 RE24 in support, and Ben Rice added plus-8.6 percent WPA and plus-0.4 RE24 for New York. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from 67 percent in favor of the Yankees before first pitch to zero percent at final out, marking a complete reversal driven by Cincinnati's pitching staff and the Yankees' inability to convert their late opportunities.