MLB Recap · July 3, 2024

Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

CIN3
Final
NYY2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CIN020010000330
NYY000000200250

The Story

The Cincinnati Reds handed the New York Yankees a 3-2 defeat at Yankee Stadium on July 3, 2024, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of just 33 percent in their favor. Cincinnati scored twice in the second inning and added a third run in the fifth, while New York's offense managed only a two-run seventh, leaving the Reds to protect a one-run lead through the final frames. Andrew Abbott led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-39.4 percent, anchoring the Cincinnati effort across his innings, and he received critical late support from Justin Wilson and Tommy Kahnle, who contributed plus-18.7 and plus-7.4 percent respectively to close out the Yankees.

The game's decisive sequence unfolded in the final two innings. In the bottom of the seventh, Anthony Volpe's double off Fernando Cruz generated a plus-16.4 percent swing and ignited what became the Yankees' only scoring rally, but Aaron Judge immediately blunted the threat by grounding into a double play, a minus-20.8 percent swing that effectively stalled New York's momentum. The ninth inning produced the two most impactful individual plays of the game: Juan Soto's flyout off Alexis Díaz registered a stunning plus-31.6 percent win-probability swing, indicating how tightly the game sat in the balance, before Anthony Volpe grounded into a double play to end it at minus-27.2 percent, sealing Cincinnati's road victory.

Among hitters, Juan Soto finished as the game's top WPA performer despite his team's loss, posting plus-45.8 percent and a plus-0.9 RE24, a reflection of the sustained pressure he applied throughout the night. Austin Wells contributed plus-17.1 percent WPA and plus-0.6 RE24 in support, and Ben Rice added plus-8.6 percent WPA and plus-0.4 RE24 for New York. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from 67 percent in favor of the Yankees before first pitch to zero percent at final out, marking a complete reversal driven by Cincinnati's pitching staff and the Yankees' inability to convert their late opportunities.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CIN bats firstFinalNYY win %CIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 67.2% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Juan Soto Flyout
Bot 9th · off Alexis Díaz
+31.6%
Anthony Volpe Grounded Into DP
Bot 9th · off Alexis Díaz
-27.2%
Aaron Judge Grounded Into DP
Bot 7th · off Fernando Cruz
-20.8%
Trent Grisham Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Justin Wilson
-18.7%
Anthony Volpe Double
Bot 7th · off Fernando Cruz
+16.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Juan Soto+45.8%+0.9 RE24
Austin Wells+17.1%+0.6 RE24
Ben Rice+8.6%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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